知名本土轮胎企业，产能进一步提升 中策橡胶(603049) 中策橡胶首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 李博(分析师) | 021-23185642 | libo7@gtht.com | S0880525040055 | 本报告导读： 公司是我国销售规模最大的轮胎制造企业之一，半钢胎、全钢胎产能扩张进一步提 升主要产品产能。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 66.13 | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 43.49-60.88 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 48,455 | | 总 ...

知名本土轮胎企业，产能进一步提升 中策橡胶(603049) 中策橡胶首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 李博(分析师) | 021-23185642 | libo7@gtht.com | S0880525040055 | 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 66.13 | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 43.49-60.88 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 48,455 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 874/87 | | 流通 B股/H 股(百万股) | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) 本报告导读： 公司是我国 ...

会议助理 1: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 杨旭 中泰证券汽车分析师: 好的，各各位投资者，大家晚晚上好。我是中泰汽车分析师唐素，然后今天晚上的话，我 这边就主要是会进行轮胎的一个系列底底部个股的一个提示。那今天晚上的话我们是合计 会进行三个个股的提示，包括中策、赛轮和海安。那当前的话，我先对这个中测的情况进 行一个重点的介绍。那首先的话，从今天整体的一个汇报内容的来看的话，大家可以看， 就是基于我的这个展示的框架 p 框架 PPT，然后我整体的话还是从行业和个股的两两块， 对整个行业一些核心的关注点。 然后从这个业绩和估值两块，我还是，就是简单的把一些核心的要点进行一个介绍吧，首 先从业绩端来看的话，其实核心的话目前我们简单的就可以去理解成这个放量和利润率提 升两块。然后从第一块这个出海放量来看，那其实也是大家非常熟悉的一个，这个轮胎的 主旋律。那出海一直是大家这个轮胎非常重要的这个驱动力。那从 26 年去看，那其实这 个海外的这个空间就是核心还是来源于海外的一个空间，非常大。那中国的轮胎在海外的 这个市占率是小于百百 20%，那基于这样的一个背景下，那我们系列的头胎起其实在 26 年还是出海 ...

证券日报网讯 1月28日，中策橡胶在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司中策金坛项目正在有序推进 中，具体情况请关注公司定期报告等相关公告。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

内容概况：根据国家标准《绿色产品评价 轮胎（GB/T 40718-2021）》，绿色轮胎是指在全生命周期过 程中，符合环境保护要求，对生态环境和人体健康无害或危害小、资源能源消耗少、品质高的轮胎产 品。发展绿色轮胎，不仅可以降低汽车排放量，助力解决废旧轮胎污染治理，还可以降低资源依赖与供 应链风险，进一步强化供应链的抗风险能力。近年来，我国绿色轮胎需求呈现快速增长态势，2023年销 售量突破亿条，2024年增长至1.38亿条，2025年突破1.6亿条。市场持续增长是政策、市场、技术、环 境、贸易等多个因素协同作用的结果，其中政策大力推动和新能源汽车爆发是两大核心引擎，而技术进 步和消费者意识觉醒则为需求增长提供了可持续动力。绿色轮胎渗透率明显提升，2024年销售占比已经 达到23%，相较2020年增长8个百分点。同时，生物基香蕉、二氧化硅等环保原材料需求逐渐提高，环 保属性成为品牌溢价的新支点。随着全球绿色转型加速和国际贸易规则趋严，绿色轮胎将从"可选产 品"变为"必选产品"，市场需求将进一步增长。截至2025年末，我国绿色轮胎产品有效认证数量为18 个，涉及住友橡胶(常熟)有限公司、中策橡胶集团股份有限公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Solid growth in core business is essential for companies to navigate through economic cycles [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **XianDao Intelligent (300450)**: Expected net profit of 150 million to 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 424.29% to 529.15% due to recovery in global battery demand and internal digital transformation [6] - **YongChuang Intelligent (603901)**: Expected net profit of 12.8 million to 15.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 721.57% to 894.86% driven by improved delivery efficiency and product structure optimization [7] - **DaoShi Technology (300409)**: Expected net profit growth of 206.01% to 269.76% due to increased production capacity and recovery in cobalt prices [8] - **FuDa Alloy (603049)**: Expected net profit growth of 119.14% to 219.95% supported by stable demand in power equipment and new energy sectors [9] - **ZhaoJin Gold (000506)**: Expected net profit of 12.2 million to 18.2 million, a turnaround from a loss of 127 million last year, driven by increased production and rising gold prices [10] - **SiTeWei (688213)**: Expected net profit of 97.635 million to 103.053 million, a year-on-year increase of 149% to 162% due to increased shipments of smartphone camera products [11] - **ZhongWei Semiconductor (688380)**: Expected net profit of around 28.4 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 107.55% due to new product launches [12] - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: Expected net profit of 127 million to 160.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 90% driven by rising sales prices [13] - **NanFang Precision (002553)**: Expected net profit of 30 million to 37 million, a year-on-year increase of 1,130% to 1,417% due to investment project evaluations [14] - **Shanghai YiZhong (688091)**: Expected net profit of 6 million to 7 million, a year-on-year increase of 760.18% to 903.54% due to inclusion in the national medical insurance directory [15] - **RunTu Co., Ltd. (002440)**: Expected net profit of 60 million to 70 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.05% to 227.89% driven by improved operating profits [16] Major Performance Changes - **HeFu China (603122)**: Expected net loss of 36 million to 25 million, a shift from profit due to changes in the macro environment and industry policies [17] - **ChangJiu Logistics (603569)**: Expected net loss of 75 million to 50 million, a shift from profit due to asset impairment and operational challenges [18] - **ZhiChun Technology (603690)**: Expected net loss of 45 million to 30 million, a shift from profit due to increased competition and rising R&D costs [19] - **BaYi Steel (600581)**: Expected net loss of 205 million to 185 million, a shift from profit due to supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry [20] - **AoKeMa (600336)**: Expected net loss of 22 million to 17 million, a shift from profit due to increased competition in the home appliance sector [21] - **HuiDa Sanitary Ware (603385)**: Expected net loss of 21.6 million to 18 million, a shift from profit due to market demand decline [22] - **DongFeng Co. (600006)**: Expected net loss of 48 million to 39 million, a shift from profit due to competitive pressures in the commercial vehicle market [23] Industry Trend Analysis - **High Growth Industries**: Stable demand in new energy sectors benefits companies like FuDa Alloy [24] - **Performance Changes in Industries**: - New energy and lithium battery equipment sectors are experiencing explosive growth [25] - Gold and precious metals sectors are seeing significant profit improvements due to high prices [26] - Semiconductor and automotive electronics are benefiting from trends in smart vehicles [27] - Medical circulation is under pressure from cost control policies [28] - Logistics and transportation are facing profitability challenges due to falling prices [29] - Semiconductor equipment is experiencing short-term performance declines due to cyclical fluctuations [30] - Traditional manufacturing sectors like steel and home appliances are facing intensified competition [31]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber experienced a stock price increase of 5.58% on January 19, with a trading volume of 560 million yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financing Summary - On January 19, Zhongce Rubber had a financing buy amount of 32.25 million yuan and a financing repayment of 44.62 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 12.37 million yuan [1]. - As of January 19, the total financing and securities lending balance for Zhongce Rubber was 248 million yuan, which represents 4.88% of its circulating market value [1]. - The company had no shares repaid in securities lending on January 19, with 200 shares sold, amounting to 11,600 yuan at the closing price, and a remaining securities lending balance of 6,390 yuan [1]. Company Performance - Zhongce Rubber reported a revenue of 33.683 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 3.513 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.30% [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zhongce Rubber was 38,300, a decrease of 46.47% compared to the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 86.82% to 2,217 shares [1]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Zhongce Rubber has distributed a total of 1.137 billion yuan in dividends [2]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the seventh largest circulating shareholder of Zhongce Rubber was the Xingquan Trend Investment Mixed Fund (LOF), which holds 856,200 shares as a new shareholder [2].

Group 1 - Zhongce Rubber experienced a 5.16% increase in stock price, reaching 57.85 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 444 million CNY and a turnover rate of 8.90%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 50.589 billion CNY [1] - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on June 12, 1992, and is primarily engaged in the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, Bosera Fund has one fund heavily invested in Zhongce Rubber. The Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) held 169 shares, ranking as the tenth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 479.96 CNY [2] - The Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) was established on March 8, 2023, with a latest scale of 98.6416 million CNY. Year-to-date return is 2.37%, ranking 6057 out of 9009 in its category; the one-year return is 25.97%, ranking 4752 out of 8164; and the return since inception is 21.9% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) is Guo Jun, who has a cumulative tenure of 21 years and 293 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 70.648 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 322.41% and the worst being -6.17% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongce Rubber has experienced a continuous decline in stock price, dropping 0.76% to 53.73 CNY per share, with a total market value of 46.986 billion CNY and a cumulative decline of 5.54% over six days [1] - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 12, 1992. The company specializes in the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] - The trading volume for Zhongce Rubber was 262 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.54% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under China Merchants Fund has a significant position in Zhongce Rubber, holding 543 shares of the stock, which represents 0.0006% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund, China Merchants CSI 300 Real Estate Equal Weight Index A (161721), has seen a floating loss of approximately 222.63 CNY today and a cumulative floating loss of 1710.45 CNY during the six-day decline [2] - The fund was established on January 1, 2021, with a current scale of 434 million CNY, and has reported a year-to-date return of 1.04% and a one-year loss of 5.92% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Viewpoints - The EU's anti-dumping measures against Chinese semi-steel tires are expected to be implemented by mid-2026, potentially leading to a demand shift of approximately 8.7 million units overseas. Current Chinese tire manufacturers have an overseas semi-steel tire capacity of only 17.6 million units per year, which is insufficient to meet the combined demand of approximately 25.1 million units from Europe and the US [3][10][76] - The semi-steel tire segment is characterized by strong consumer attributes, making it the most profitable category in the tire industry. The global demand for semi-steel tires is around 1.6 billion units annually, with an average price of $71 per tire, resulting in a market size of $114 billion [6][25] - Chinese semi-steel tire production capacity is projected to reach 82 million units per year by 2024, with an annual output of approximately 64 million units, accounting for about 40% of global supply. Exports constitute about 52% of China's semi-steel tire production [7][41] Summary by Sections EU Anti-Dumping Measures - The EU has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese semi-steel tires, with a final decision expected by June 2026. In 2024, the EU is projected to consume approximately 400 million semi-steel tires, with 90 million units imported from China, representing 60% of non-EU imports [8][59][60] Overseas Expansion of Chinese Tire Companies - Chinese tire manufacturers are increasingly establishing overseas production capacities, with approximately 22.2 million units per year already operational and an additional 28.7 million units planned. The EU's anti-dumping measures are expected to create a capacity gap that will take time to fill [9][68] - The US imports about 164 million semi-steel tires annually, with significant competition expected between the EU and the US for semi-steel tire capacity. The demand from the EU for 8.7 million units per year is likely to shift from China to overseas production [9][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities arising from both volume and price increases. Companies with greater marginal increases in overseas capacity and a higher proportion of total capacity in overseas production are expected to benefit more. Recommended companies include Senqilin, Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and Linglong Tire [10][76]