稀土真破局了？见过澳总理后，特朗普宣告全球，不会被中国卡脖子

Core Viewpoint - Trump claims that the U.S. will have sufficient rare earth supply in the coming year, thanks to a new supply chain established with Australia, reducing reliance on China [1]. Group 1: U.S.-Australia Cooperation - On October 20, Trump signed a cooperation document with Australian Prime Minister Albanese, committing up to $8.5 billion for rare earth mining, processing, and refining [1]. - The U.S. aims to increase domestic and overseas rare earth investments to avoid dependence on China, a strategy that has been in pursuit since the Biden administration [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Rare Earth Supply - Previous considerations for sourcing rare earths from Ukraine, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan faced challenges such as difficult extraction, high costs, and geopolitical instability, particularly in Ukraine due to war [3]. - Australia’s Lynas Corporation achieved commercial extraction of heavy rare earths in June, presenting a potential partnership opportunity for the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Technical and Economic Hurdles - Despite initial technological advancements, Australia’s refining processes are not yet mature, with low purity and high costs compared to China's established technology, which exceeds 99.99% purity [5]. - The U.S. has historically relied on Chinese technology for rare earth extraction, indicating that significant investment, time, and technological development are required to catch up [5]. Group 4: Skepticism and Realism - Analysts express skepticism about Trump's assertion that the U.S. will have an abundant supply of rare earths within a year, citing that China took 66 years to become a global leader in rare earths [7]. - Australia remains dependent on China for processing, with approximately 90% of lithium ore still sent to China for refinement, complicating the U.S. strategy [7]. - The agreement between the U.S. and Australia is described as an "action plan" without binding targets, indicating a lack of commitment from Australia, which is cautious about jeopardizing its relationship with China [7][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - The complexities of technology and industry development suggest that rather than seeking alternative sources, the U.S. might benefit more from re-establishing direct trade relations with China for rare earth products [9]. - Given the current geopolitical climate and internal challenges, time is a critical factor for the U.S. to enhance its military and technological capabilities [9].