住建部已查清全国房子数量，过剩问题有多严重？楼市或迎来新变局！

Core Insights - The article highlights the alarming reality of housing oversupply in China, with a total of 660 million houses, including over 120 million vacant units, which could accommodate 360 million people, nearly equivalent to the entire population of the United States [7][9][10] - The shift in public sentiment from fearing housing shortages to worrying about excess housing is underscored by predictions of a 75% reduction in new housing demand over the coming years [10][12] - The article identifies three main drivers of this housing surplus: accelerated urbanization, the perception of real estate as a profitable investment, and local governments' reliance on land sale revenues [12][14][15] Housing Market Dynamics - The supply of new homes has increased from 6.8 trillion square meters to 7.6 trillion square meters, indicating a fundamental shift in the supply-demand relationship [12] - The average living space per person in China has reached 41.2 square meters, comparable to developed countries, suggesting that the demand for new housing may be saturated [13] - The real estate market is experiencing significant declines, with a 13.9% year-on-year drop in real estate development investment and a 7.9% decrease in sales revenue [18] Economic Implications - The oversupply of housing is expected to negatively impact various related industries, potentially reducing GDP growth by 2 to 3 percentage points if the real estate sector contracts significantly [16] - Local governments are facing financial challenges due to decreased land sale revenues, which could affect public services and infrastructure funding [18] - The article warns that the rapid decline in property values could lead to negative equity situations for homeowners, particularly in areas where property prices have dropped by over 40% [18][19] Recommendations for Investors - The article advises property owners to consider selling excess properties, especially those in less desirable locations, to avoid further losses as market conditions worsen [19][24] - It suggests that investors focus on high-quality properties in core urban areas, which are more likely to retain value and generate rental income [21][24] - The changing attitudes towards homeownership indicate a shift towards renting as a viable option, reflecting a broader trend in urban living [20][24]