美国9月CPI未达预期 美联储10月或将降息

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the 0.4% increase in August, and year-on-year it increased by 3.0%, slightly above the previous value of 2.9% but still below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with the year-on-year increase also dropping to 3.0% [1] - Analysts believe that the moderate inflation growth opens up the possibility for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, despite short-term increases in energy prices [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities anticipates that the core inflation in September will continue to show a moderate upward trend, reinforcing the market's pricing of a rate cut in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting towards supporting the labor market, as signs of weakness in the job market have become more apparent, even in the absence of government data during the shutdown [2] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the path for future easing by the Federal Reserve may be more constrained, with potential upward pressure on inflation leading to a possible pause in rate cuts in December or January [2]