新集能源(601918)：煤、电业务环比修复 业绩略超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight recovery in Q3 compared to Q2, indicating challenges in the market but potential for improvement in the upcoming quarters [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 3.199 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.16% year-on-year but an increase of 10.25% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit was 555 million yuan, down 14.24% year-on-year but up 43.12% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Coal Production and Sales - In Q3 2025, the company produced 5.61 million tons of coal, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year but a decrease of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter; coal sales reached 5.03 million tons, up 7.5% year-on-year and up 4.2% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2025 was 513 yuan per ton, down 8.0% year-on-year but up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter; the average cost was 328 yuan per ton, down 4.8% year-on-year and down 0.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Resource Capacity - As of June 2025, the company had five operational mines with a total production capacity of 23.5 million tons per year and a total resource reserve of 10.16 billion tons, accounting for 40% of the total resource amount of the four major coal companies in Anhui Province [3]. Power Generation - In Q3 2025, the company generated 4.365 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year and 43.4% quarter-on-quarter; the on-grid electricity volume was 4.102 billion kWh, up 9.0% year-on-year and 43.8% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.3715 yuan per kWh, down 8.5% year-on-year but unchanged quarter-on-quarter [4]. Integrated Coal and Power Operations - The company is advancing its coal-electricity integration strategy, with existing power plants consuming about 50% of the coal production; new power projects are expected to enhance profitability and risk resilience [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.4 billion yuan, 2.43 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.7X, 7.6X, and 7.1X [5].