gszqdatemark 】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 09 07 年 月 日 煤炭开采 调整步入尾声，政策陆续落地，价格酝酿反攻 行情回顾（2025.8.29~2025.9.5）： 中信煤炭指数 3,459.14 点，上涨 0.10%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.91pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 9 位。 近期，煤炭上市公司的 25 年中报已披露完毕，我们从另外一个视角对相关公司财报 进行解析，总结如下： ➢ 谁是现金王？ ➢ 谁的负债低？ ➢ 谁的家底厚？ ➢ 谁的潜力大？ ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3：昊华能源、伊泰 B 股、淮北矿业。 压力测试结束，业绩触底将迎改善。近期我们不断强调两个观点，随着 6 月价格低点 已现，煤企盈利大概率将随之触底回升。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱： ...

华侨城集团有限公司 吴秉琪任华侨城集团有限公司党委副书记、董事，提名为华侨城集团有限公司总经理人选。 免去张振高的华侨城集团有限公司党委书记、党委常委、董事长、董事职务，退休。 9月5日，国务院国资委网站发布8户中央企业11名领导人员职务任免信息。 免去王斌的中国电力建设集团有限公司党委副书记、党委常委、董事职务，不再担任中国电力建设集团 有限公司总经理职务，退休。 中国保利集团有限公司 免去刘军才的中国保利集团有限公司党委常委职务，不再担任中国保利集团有限公司副总经理职务，退 休。 中国煤炭科工集团有限公司 聘任章克勤为中国煤炭科工集团有限公司外部董事。 免去刘凤喜的华侨城集团有限公司党委副书记、党委常委、董事职务，不再担任华侨城集团有限公司总 经理职务。 中国煤炭地质总局 武岳彪任中国煤炭地质总局副局长。 中国冶金地质总局 免去牛建华的中国冶金地质总局党委书记、副局长职务，退休。 中国电力建设集团有限公司 中国机械科学研究总院集团有限公司 聘任许质武为中国机械科学研究总院集团有限公司外部董事。 中国航空油料集团有限公司 聘任李辉、陈建华为中国航空油料集团有限公司外部董事。 （文章来源：中国基金报） ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The coal mining sector increased by 0.03% compared to the previous trading day, with Electric Power Investment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Electric Power Investment (002128) closed at 21.37, up 1.38% with a trading volume of 162,300 shares [1] - Yongtai Energy (600157) closed at 1.49, up 1.36% with a trading volume of 9.64 million shares [1] - China Shenhua (601088) closed at 38.16, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 425,700 shares [1] - Jinko Energy (601001) closed at 12.96, down 2.56% with a trading volume of 226,400 shares [2] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 420 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 314 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed a negative net flow in several stocks, including Yongtai Energy and Pingmei Shenhua [3] - Retail investors contributed positively to stocks like Gansu Energy and New Dazhou A, indicating varied investor sentiment across the sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to declining coal and electricity prices, but growth in coal and electricity integration is expected [1][4]. - The company has a strong coal reserve and production capacity, which positions it well for future growth despite current challenges [2][14]. - The electricity business is anticipated to grow significantly with the commissioning of new power plants, although current electricity prices are declining [3][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and a net profit of 920 million yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year and 26.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][10]. Coal Business - The company produced 9.94 million tons of commercial coal in the first half of 2025, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, with sales of 9.43 million tons, up 3.6% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal in the first half of 2025 was 529 yuan per ton, down 36 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost was 327 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan per ton year-on-year [2]. Electricity Business - The company generated 6.7 billion kWh of electricity in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.372 yuan per kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [3]. - The commissioning of new power plants is expected to enhance the company's electricity generation capacity and improve profitability [3][31]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 1.96 billion yuan in 2025, 2.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.63 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.4, 6.7, and 6.3 [4][63]. - The estimated stock price range is between 6.8 and 7.6 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 7% to 19% compared to the closing price on August 27 [4][63].

另一入选项目为基于人工智能的电力多元转化研发平台建设及电催化二氧化碳制备绿色燃料和化工品技 术开发项目。该项目由低碳院所属欧洲研究院联合德国莱布尼茨催化研究所合作开发，突破了二氧化碳 电催化高选择性转化制备绿色燃料与化工品的关键技术瓶颈，在欧洲形成先行先试和示范带动效应。 此次典型案例遴选工作由国家能源局指导，中欧能源技术创新合作办公室与中国欧盟商会共同组织，覆 盖氢能、智慧能源、新型储能等多个重点领域。低碳院凭借创新技术研发能力和国际科技合作经验，成 为首批入选单位之一。 中化新网讯 8月15日，国家能源集团北京低碳清洁能源研究院(以下简称低碳院)两项目入选首批中欧能 源合作典型案例名单。 其中，高碳效率合成气直接制线性α-烯烃催化技术诞生于NICE-TU/e C1催化联合实验室。该实验室由低 碳院与荷兰埃因霍温理工大学共同建立，是国家能源集团首个中欧国际研发平台。该技术实现一步法合 成线型α-烯烃，推动了煤化工产业高端化、多元化、低碳化发展，目前已在国家能源集团包头化工完成 百吨级中试，将于2026年完成万吨级工业示范运行。 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The average import tax rate in the U.S. increased by 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is lower than market expectations[5] - If the average import tax rate rises by 10% this year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE to 3.4% under stable demand conditions[7] Consumer and Business Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers accounted for less than 40%[6] - The consumer price sensitivity may lead businesses to absorb a significant portion of tariff costs, affecting pricing strategies[6] Durable Goods and Construction Sector - Domestic demand for construction remains weak, with steel and glass prices declining, while cement prices have rebounded due to enhanced production management[9] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in daily sales from August 11 to August 17[10] Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of CNY 420.85 billion from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8%[14] - Life insurance premiums reached CNY 258.61 billion in July, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 33.5%[15] Steel Industry Outlook - China's crude steel production from January to July 2025 was 594 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in production capacity[25] - The steel industry is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to a combination of demand recovery and supply-side reductions[27]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing presence of global sovereign wealth funds in the A-share market, with notable funds such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, and Singapore Government Investment Corporation appearing among the top ten shareholders of several A-shares [1][2] - As of the end of Q2 this year, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority held 19 A-shares with a total of 376 million shares valued at 8 billion yuan, showing significant increases compared to the end of Q1 [1][2] - Kuwait Investment Authority holds 8 A-shares with a total of 100 million shares valued at 1.98 billion yuan, having recently entered the top ten shareholders of companies like Giant Star Technology and Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates a notable increase in international capital interest in the A-share market, with nearly 60% of sovereign wealth funds planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets over the next five years, driven by attractive investment returns and market diversification [2] - The Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Fund, Zheng Yuchen, stated that China is demonstrating leading advantages in areas such as artificial intelligence, which is gaining global recognition, thereby enhancing domestic and international investor confidence [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to falling coal and electricity prices, but there is potential for growth through coal-electricity integration [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 5.811 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 920 million yuan, down 21.72% year-on-year [4][5] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised downwards, with expected figures of 2.04 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -14.8%, +9.9%, and +7.2% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 11.197 million tons, an increase of 7.88% year-on-year, while the average coal price was 529 yuan/ton, down 6.3% year-on-year [5] - The electricity generation for H1 2025 was 6.67 billion kWh, a significant increase of 44.6% year-on-year, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.37 yuan/kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [5] - The company has a total production capacity of 23.5 million tons/year from its coal mines and is actively expanding its coal-electricity integration strategy [6] Dividend Policy - The company has steadily increased its cash dividend from 0.01 yuan per share in 2018 to 0.16 yuan per share in 2024, with the 2024 cash dividend accounting for 17.32% of net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 13.572 billion, 14.304 billion, and 15.263 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 5.4%, and 6.7% respectively [7] - The expected diluted EPS for 2025 to 2027 is 0.79, 0.86, and 0.93 yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in production and sales volume, while facing challenges from falling coal prices and electricity rates [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 saw operating revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - The company’s coal production reached 11.2 million tons in H1 2025, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, with a total coal sales volume of 9.43 million tons, up 3.63% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal was 529 yuan per ton, down 6.3% year-on-year, while the external sales price was 513 yuan per ton, down 9.0% year-on-year [1] - The cost per ton of coal was 327 yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 201 yuan per ton, down 10.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Electricity Generation - The company’s electricity generation increased significantly, with a total output of 6.67 billion kWh in H1 2025, up 44.6% year-on-year [2] - The average on-grid electricity price was approximately 0.372 yuan per kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [2] - The electricity segment generated revenue of 2.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 30.2% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company has plans for new power generation capacity, including the commissioning of the Banjic Power Plant Phase II in October 2024 and additional projects scheduled for 2026 [2] - The company is also planning the resumption of operations at the Yangcun Mine [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.1 billion yuan, 14.3 billion yuan, and 14.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.01 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, and 2.58 billion yuan [3] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 7.99, 6.79, and 6.48 for the respective years [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 公司研究丨点评报告丨新集能源（601918.SH） [Table_Title] 新集能源 2025H1 点评：控本降费缓解价减压 力，业绩底部改善可期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年半年报：2025 上半年实现归母净利润 9.20 亿元，同比下降 21.7%；单二季 度实现归母净利润 3.89 亿元，同比下降 32.8%，环比下降 26.9%。整体来看，煤炭业务方面， 煤价下行拖累业绩，成本管控&热值提升减缓降幅；电力业务方面，电价下行&度电成本抬升为 电力业绩偏低主因。展望未来，随着旺季电价回升&度电成本有望回归正常化，公司业绩有望底 部改善，长期成长性突出。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.co ...