南钢股份(600282)：季度扣非净利创三年新高

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 43.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.12% to 2.176 billion yuan [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 713 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.12%, although it decreased by 19.37% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with the gross profit margin and net profit margin improving sequentially due to optimized product structure and agile operational strategies [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 666 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.42%, the best quarterly performance since Q3 2022 [1] - The average CSPI steel price index for the first three quarters was 93.76, down 9.19% year-on-year, while the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 83.7 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 16.97 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Product Development - The company produced a total of 6.949 million tons of steel in the first three quarters, with Q3 production increasing over 14% compared to Q1, indicating recovery from maintenance impacts [2] - The proportion of construction materials in the product mix has decreased from 20% in 2021 to less than 10%, while the share of special steel long products has risen from 29% to 36% [2] - Advanced steel materials sales reached 1.3372 million tons in the first half of 2025, accounting for 29.77% of total steel sales, with a gross margin of 20.26%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Partnerships - Following the integration into CITIC Group, the company transitioned from a mixed-ownership model to being state-owned, leveraging shareholder resources for operational synergies and financial resource sharing [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.186 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 731 million yuan, which represents 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [3] Investment Outlook - The company focuses on mid-to-high-end specialized plate and special steel long product manufacturing, benefiting from product structure improvements and shareholder empowerment, indicating strong resilience in profitability [3] - The valuation has significant recovery potential, with a three-year valuation midpoint corresponding to a market value of approximately 33.6 billion yuan and a high valuation region corresponding to around 46.7 billion yuan [3]