现实与预期的折返跑：今年 5 月份以来钢铁产量统计数据质量不佳，与钢联统计铁水产量匹 配度较低。粗钢统计数据质量下降的原因可能与今年产量压降压力有关，部分地区统计数据 与实际产量数据分化较大，也对评估今年的钢铁需求造成一定的影响。如果用钢材产量增速 去替换粗钢产量增速去估算今年钢铁表观消耗可能更加符合实际。今年 1-11 月份中国钢材 表观消费量同比增长 3.6%，其中 11 月份单月表观消费同比回落 3.3%。上半年强出口和宽 财政是推动经济反弹的关键，只不过四月份产业链面对关税的不确定性缺少信心，主动清理 库存压抑了实际需求反弹。六月份库存周期见底后开始回升，经济从强现实弱预期向强现实 强预期转换。虽然三季度财政发力开始逐步放缓，经济增速相对之前有所下降，但库存周期 向上波动一定程度平滑了实际需求变化。由于今年财政前置，前三季度政府债净发行量达到 11.46 万亿元，已经接近全年计划的 85%，意味着四季度财政对经济的支持力度会进一步下 降，同时类似家电以旧换新政策效果会随着时间推移效用衰减，以及出口去年同期的高基数 带来的影响。缓解的措施包括存量政策的执行，如上半年宣布的 5000 亿元政策性金融工具， ...

南京钢铁股份有限公司关于为控股子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 担保对象及基本情况 ■ 注：以美元对人民币汇率1:7.0656测算，折合人民币45,219.84万元，下同。 ● 累计担保情况 证券代码：600282 证券简称：南钢股份公告编号：临2025-061 二、被担保人基本情况 ■ 三、担保协议的主要内容 1、银行：国家开发银行江苏省分行 ■ 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保的基本情况 2025年12月15日，南京钢铁股份有限公司（以下简称公司）与国家开发银行江苏省分行签署《外汇贷款 保证合同》，为金瑞新能源与国家开发银行江苏省分行发生的授信业务提供不超过6,400万美元的连带 责任保证担保。 本次担保发生后，公司2025年对金瑞新能源提供的新增担保额度为174,544.64万元，可用新增担保额度 为128,895.36万元。 （二）内部决策程序 公司于2024年12月26日召开的第九届董事会第七次会议、2025年1月22日召开的2025年第一次临时股东 大会审议通过了 ...

证券代码：600282 证券简称：南钢股份 公告编号：临 2025-061 | | | | | | 实际为其提供的 | 是否在前 | 本次担保 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 被担保人名称 | | | | 本次担保金额 | 担保余额（不含 | 期预计额 | 是否有反 | | | | | | | 本次担保金额） | 度内 | 担保 | | PT. KinRui | New | Energy Technologies | | | | | | | Indonesia（中文名称：印尼金瑞新能源科 | | | 6,400 | 注 万美元 | 150,511.97 万元 | 是 | 否 | | 技有限责任公司 | | ，以下简称金瑞新能源） | | | | | | 注：以美元对人民币汇率 1:7.0656 测算，折合人民币 45,219.84 万元，下同。 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股子公司 | 819,138.56 | | 对外担保总额（万元） | | ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000932 | 华菱钢铁 | 6353.36万 | 15.19% | -4764.58万 | -11.39% | -1588.77万 | -3.80% | | 600010 | 包钢股份 | 4620.20万 | 6.69% | -3478.43万 | -5.04% | -1141.77万 | -1.65% | | 600282 | 南钢股份 | 4263.32万 | 8.01% | -4650.62万 | -8.73% | 387.30万 | 0.73% | | 000778 | 新兴铸管 | 1602.43万 | 5.56% | -1919.31万 | -6.66% | 316.88万 | 1.10% | | 600782 新钢股份 | | 849.15万 | 3.78% | -1245.66万 | -5.55% | 396.50万 | 1.77% | | 0 ...

夜幕降临，南钢文体公园的灯光次第亮起。三座场馆依山势而建，组合来看，外观形似大鹏展翅，银灰 色的铝板幕墙、晶莹的玻璃幕墙在夜色中光彩夺目。比赛激战正酣，加油声穿透玻璃幕墙，与远处轧钢 机的轰鸣形成共鸣，这是独属于城市钢铁森林的奇妙体验。 焕星馆前身是建于1995年的南钢体育馆。曾经，每逢周三、周五、周日晚，万人空巷，灯火辉煌。1995 年至2015年，南钢体育馆连续20年成功举办了中国男子篮球职业联赛(CBA)江苏南钢男子篮球队主场的 比赛。 为了看场球赛，大厂地区以外的球迷，宁愿挤着公交来到南钢体育馆。一条不算长的幸福路，人潮如 织。 2025—2026赛季中国女子篮球联赛（WCBA）江苏队主场比赛开启，南钢体育馆焕然一新——南钢文体 公园焕星馆重新出发 南钢文体公园。 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 董家训 摄 □ 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 刘安琪 通讯员 邵启明 今年12月10日至明年1月30日，熟悉的呐喊声将回到南京江北新区幸福路77号，2025—2026赛季中国女 子篮球联赛（WCBA）江苏南钢队的主场比赛，将点燃南钢文体公园焕星馆。"92:58！"12月10日主场 首战，江苏南钢队以大比分锁定胜局。这座 ...

截至2025年12月15日 10:34，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.56%，成分股中粮糖业上涨9.99%，山煤国际上涨4.00%，鲁西化工上涨3.85%，厦门银行上涨 3.57%，昊华能源上涨3.05%。国企红利ETF(159515)上涨0.53%。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未 来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资需谨慎） 据WInd数据显示，流动性方面，截至12月12日，国企红利ETF近1月日均成交271.64万元。规模方面，国企红利ETF近1周规模增长237.17万元。份额方面， 国企红利ETF近1周份额增长300.00万份，实现显著增长。 消息面上，国资委将"市值管理"纳入央企负责人考核，直接推动了央企通过回购、增持和提高分红比例来回报股东。由于央企具备极强的经营稳定性和现金 流创造能力（如水电、高速、能源），在经济波动期，资金愿意给予溢价。 源达信息指出，红利资产由于其稳定的高股息和低估值属性，在低利率环境下，对风险偏好较低的资金有吸引力。在当前经济景气水平总体平稳的背景下， 11月制造业PMI小幅回升至49. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for specific companies within the steel sector, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [3][12]. Core Insights - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure, encouraging companies to shift towards high-value products and enhancing domestic profitability [8]. - The domestic steel demand is declining due to the downturn in the real estate sector, with crude steel apparent consumption expected to decrease by 4.4% in 2024, while net exports are projected to rise by over 30% [8]. - The anticipated stabilization of steel profitability is supported by a balance in supply and demand, alongside a downward trend in costs, suggesting a shift towards high-quality and high-return development in the industry [8]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) for its strong pricing power and stable profitability - CITIC Special Steel (000708, Buy) for its continuous optimization of product structure - Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) for its significant profit improvement driven by operational synergies and cost reduction [3]. - Other companies mentioned include: - Hualing Steel (000932, Not Rated) - Sansteel Minguang (002110, Not Rated) [3]. Export License Management Impact - The implementation of export licenses for 300 steel products, including pig iron and steel plates, marks a new phase in domestic steel export management, aiming to guide companies towards higher-value exports [8]. - The management is expected to alleviate the pressure of overcapacity in the domestic market by regulating low-end product exports [8]. Market Dynamics and Profitability Outlook - The first shipment of high-grade iron ore from the Simandou project indicates a potential decrease in iron ore prices, which could positively impact steel profitability [8]. - The expectation of improved dividend capabilities for companies as capital expenditures for environmental upgrades peak and decline [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Buy" for several key companies including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The market remains in a state of fluctuation, with non-ferrous metals outperforming ferrous metals. The focus is on the financial attributes of metals, particularly gold, silver, and copper [2]. - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year. This is expected to influence domestic policies towards a more proactive fiscal stance [2]. - The steel industry is expected to see a shift towards structural adjustments, with a focus on optimizing consumption patterns and enhancing service consumption [2]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the valuation of the steel sector, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, indicating potential for absolute returns [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 32,000 tons to 2.291 million tons, with steel production continuing to decline, particularly in rebar [14]. - Total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, while steel mill inventories have slightly increased by 0.9% [27]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 2.8% [53]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has decreased by 0.8% [43]. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 1.1% [72]. - The current spot price for rebar in Beijing is 3,110 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [72]. - The profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating a challenging profitability environment [74]. Industry News - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products is seen as a significant step towards promoting high-quality development in the steel industry [96]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for the implementation of capacity replacement in the steel industry, which is expected to enhance supply-side adjustments [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for deep reforms to address "involution" competition in the steel industry, with the central government advocating for a unified national market and stricter export management [2]. - The introduction of export licenses for certain steel products is expected to limit the export of low-value-added products, encouraging steel companies to upgrade to higher-end products [2]. - In the short term, low-value-added products may face adjustments, while the long-term trend will see an increase in the export proportion of high-end products, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 12, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [7][16]. - The report notes a decline in production and inventory levels, with total steel production at 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons week-on-week [7][16]. International Steel Market - The report highlights stable price increases in the U.S. and European steel markets, with U.S. hot-rolled coil prices at 985 USD/ton, up 10 USD from the previous week [28][30]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices remaining stable while others have decreased slightly [33]. - The report indicates a decline in scrap steel prices, with the current price at 2,080 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from the previous week [33]. Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024 and a PE ratio of 18 [3].

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with structural optimization and marginal profit improvement. Supply side: total contraction and structural differentiation, with capital expenditure continuing to show weak growth. The steel industry's capital expenditure has been slowing for four consecutive years, entering negative growth in 2025 due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" policies, a downturn in the real estate sector, and limited infrastructure support [2][10] - The domestic crude steel consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year decline in demand from January to October 2025, amounting to 710 million tons. The demand in traditional steel usage areas remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2][32] - Exports have become a crucial support for the steel industry, with steel exports reaching 97.74 million tons from January to October 2025, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The total annual export volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons, effectively offsetting the pressure from declining domestic demand [2][48] Group 1: Marginal Improvement in the Steel Industry - The average steel price has continued to decline, with the comprehensive price index for ordinary steel dropping to 3,447 yuan/ton as of November 24, 2025, down approximately 200 yuan from the year's peak [10][60] - The profit margin of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with the gross profit margin reaching 6.4% in Q3 2025, marking a recovery from the low levels seen since 2022 [13][15] - The proportion of loss-making enterprises in the steel industry has slightly decreased but remains high at 37.18%, indicating ongoing challenges within the industry [17] Group 2: PPI Turnaround Expectations - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the steel industry is expected to turn positive by Q2 2026, driven by improvements in supply structure and demand dynamics [53][60] - Historical data shows that the steel industry plays a significant role in PPI fluctuations, with past PPI turnarounds in 2016 and 2021 coinciding with significant steel industry performance [54][60] - The steel industry accounts for approximately 5.9% of the PPI, making its price movements critical for overall industrial price trends [53][54] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-efficiency, low-emission regional leading enterprises such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel, as well as companies with strong growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4][60] - The steel sector is viewed as having strong "anti-involution" attributes and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity for the medium to long term [4][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small and medium-sized steel companies, particularly those with strong earnings growth and valuation appeal [4][60]