AI大崩溃！电力需求2026年到顶？

Core Insights - The article argues that the notion of a peak in electricity demand in 2026 is a misunderstanding, as it overlooks the ongoing and increasing demand driven by AI technologies and their integration into various sectors [1][11]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and AI Integration - The demand for electricity is expected to peak in 2026, but this is seen as a transitional point rather than a definitive peak, as AI's integration into society will continue to drive electricity needs upward [1][11]. - The TDCowen survey indicates that the leasing capacity of large-scale data centers reached approximately 7.4GW in Q3 2025, primarily driven by AI, which signifies a long-term, rigid demand rather than a temporary spike [2][3]. - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that global data center electricity capacity will increase from 81GW in 2024 to 277GW by 2035, indicating a tripling of demand from 2025 to 2035, further supporting the argument against a peak in 2026 [3][8]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Energy Supply - GEV's recent orders and technological advancements, such as hydrogen combustion technology in gas turbines, are positioned to support the increasing electricity demand from AI applications, emphasizing the need for stable, low-carbon energy sources [5][6]. - The acquisition of Prolec is viewed as a strategic move to enhance capacity and ensure stable electricity supply to underserved regions, thereby extending AI applications into rural and developing areas [6][7]. - The integration of AI in energy management systems is expected to optimize electricity supply and reduce waste, demonstrating a symbiotic relationship between AI and energy production [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article highlights that the current capital market's perception of a peak in electricity demand is a short-term sentiment that fails to account for the long-term growth trajectory driven by AI and technological advancements [10][11]. - GEV's financial health, with a free cash flow of $730 million in Q3 2025 and nearly $8 billion in cash reserves, indicates a strong position to invest in technologies that will support the ongoing growth in electricity demand [9][10]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and the corresponding electricity needs will require significant investments in infrastructure, including gas turbines and transformers, to meet the evolving demand landscape [8][9].