前沿观察 | 印度弃购俄罗斯石油？野村：美国可降关税来抵消其影响

Core Viewpoint - India is reducing its imports of discounted Russian crude oil, and a potential reduction in U.S. tariffs could significantly offset the impact of this decision [3] Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Nomura Holdings suggests that if the U.S. lowers tariffs, it could help restore India's competitiveness in labor-intensive exports [3] - Economists predict that the punitive 25% tariff on Russian oil imports may be lifted after November, while a reciprocal 25% tariff will remain until the end of the fiscal year in March [3] Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India has imported approximately 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day from Russia this year, accounting for 36% of its total crude imports [4] - Major Indian refiners have indicated that their imports of Russian oil will drop to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [3][4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The direct impact of India's reduced Russian oil imports is estimated to account for about 0.04% of its GDP [3] - The Reserve Bank of India estimates that a 10% increase in oil import costs could raise inflation by approximately 30 basis points and reduce economic growth by about 15 basis points [4]