Netflix Produces Strong FCF Q3 Margins - NFLX Looks 23% Too Cheap

Core Insights - Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) reported a Q3 free cash flow (FCF) margin of 23%, consistent with its year-to-date margin, but the stock has declined since the earnings release, currently valued at $1,374 per share based on a conservative 2.0% FCF yield [1][3][5] Financial Performance - The Q3 FCF margin was 23.11%, an increase from 20.46% in Q2 and a decrease from 25.24% in the previous year, resulting in a year-to-date FCF margin of 22.9% [4][5] - Analysts have raised 2026 revenue estimates to $50.91 billion, reflecting a 13% increase from the previous forecast of $45.07 billion for 2025 [5][6] - Estimated FCF for 2026 is projected at $11.71 billion, which is approximately $1.1 billion higher than the run-rate estimate of $10.64 billion based on Q3 results [6][7] Stock Valuation - The current market cap of Netflix is approximately $474.375 billion, and using a conservative 2.0% FCF yield metric suggests a target value for NFLX stock over the next 12 months [12]