美债持仓退居第三，黄金储备猛增！央行这步棋，让美联储坐不住了

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing trend of central banks, particularly in China and Poland, to accumulate gold reserves amid rising gold prices and geopolitical uncertainties, indicating a shift in global financial strategies. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces as of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of net purchases [1] - Poland's central bank has emerged as the largest gold buyer this year, acquiring a total of 67 tons in the first half, bringing its total gold reserves to 515 tons, which constitutes 22% of its foreign exchange reserves [3] - Turkey's central bank added 17 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2025, raising its total reserves to 635 tons, accounting for over 50% of global central bank purchases during that quarter [3] Group 2: Changes in Reserve Asset Structure - As of September, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,387 billion, reflecting a slight increase of $165 million from the previous month, while the internal structure of these reserves is undergoing changes [5] - Since April 2022, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have remained below $1 trillion, indicating a trend of reduction in U.S. debt holdings [5][7] - The UK has surpassed China to become the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds after increasing its holdings by $28.9 billion [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team predicts that gold prices could double within three years as investors increasingly use gold to hedge against stock market volatility [10] - A record 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves within the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [12] - The article suggests that while gold will not completely replace dollar assets, it will play an increasingly significant role in reserve systems, reflecting a diversified approach to managing uncertainty [17]