马丁·沃尔夫拉响警报：美国或将面临金融危机与通胀并存局面

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may face a scenario of simultaneous financial crisis and inflation in the coming years, with significant risks already evident [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Risks - The global economy has entered a phase of high volatility, with risks expected to escalate in 2026, particularly due to accumulating financial instability factors [3]. - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is under threat, with high public debt, large fiscal deficits, and elevated interest rates in developed countries contributing to financial system instability [4]. - A consensus that the dollar is no longer safe could lead to a mass withdrawal from dollar assets, significantly increasing the prices of safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 2: Impact of AI - Artificial intelligence is causing profound technological changes, particularly impacting knowledge workers, which may lead to significant social and political consequences [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The combination of fiscal and labor market policies in the U.S., especially measures limiting immigration, could create a highly expansionary macroeconomic environment, significantly raising inflation [5]. - Current U.S. policies resemble those of the late 1960s and early 1970s, which led to prolonged instability in the global economy and financial system [5]. Group 4: Uncertainty of Crisis Timing - The exact timing of a potential U.S. financial crisis is difficult to predict, with possibilities ranging from two to three years or longer [6]. - There are no signs of a reversal in the current political landscape, with a lack of tightening in fiscal or monetary policies and insufficient efforts to restore international confidence [6].