LPR不降，楼市持续下行，房地产这一次完全明牌了

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from reliance on policy stimulus to a more self-sustaining recovery, with a shift in focus towards new housing models and economic stability rather than aggressive growth [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - No new major loosening policies for the real estate market were introduced in September and October, with the five-year LPR remaining unchanged at 3.5% for five consecutive months [1]. - Banks are reluctant to lower LPR due to pressure from declining net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% in Q2, below the 1.8% warning line [2]. - Economic recovery provides confidence to policymakers, with GDP growth targets set around 5%, showing a gradual decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3, indicating stability without the need for aggressive interest rate cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The perception of the real estate market has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing," reflecting a fundamental change in policy thinking as the most dangerous phase has passed [6]. - The worst moments for the real estate sector appear to be over, with improvements in project delivery and a reduction in corporate defaults, although prices continue to decline [6]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on a "new model" for real estate, emphasizing rental housing, affordable housing, and commercial housing to meet diverse housing needs [8]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Dynamics - Real estate remains a pillar industry but is no longer the primary driver of economic growth; instead, it serves as a stabilizing force [10]. - Over the long term, as the economy recovers and household incomes rise, property prices in many cities are expected to gradually increase, leading to a healthier industry structure [10]. - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by "weak recovery and strong differentiation," with the need for foundational reforms and time to solidify price stability [12].