Performance Review - The company's Q3 2025 performance is in line with expectations, with a revenue decline of 11% year-on-year to 4.86 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 83% to 24.32 million yuan [1] - Cement demand is weak in the off-season, with the company's cement clinker total sales decreasing by 5.3% year-on-year to 14.12 million tons, which is a smaller decline compared to the industry average of 6.6% [1] - The average price per ton of cement clinker decreased by 32 yuan to 205 yuan, while the cost per ton also fell by 32 yuan to 173 yuan, resulting in a gross profit per ton of 32 yuan, remaining stable at a low level [1] Business Segments - The aggregate and concrete business saw rapid growth, with concrete and aggregate sales increasing by 11% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The gross profit margin for concrete increased by 7 yuan to 46 yuan, while the gross profit per ton for aggregates decreased by 5 yuan year-on-year and 1 yuan quarter-on-quarter to 8.3 yuan [1] - The company anticipates that the profitability of the aggregate segment may face pressure as industry capacity is released in 2025-2026 [1] Cost and Expenses - The overall expense per ton of cement clinker increased slightly, with total expenses rising by 3 yuan year-on-year to 50 yuan, driven by increases in sales and management expenses [1] Industry Trends - The industry may see price increases in November-December, with potential for profit recovery due to proactive measures like staggered kiln shutdowns [2] - Looking ahead to next year, if the industry strictly limits overproduction, the utilization rate of clinker capacity could rise to around 60%, enhancing profit potential in the southern market [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 down by 66% and 48% to 0.06 yuan and 0.11 yuan, respectively, due to lower-than-expected performance in volume and price [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x for 2025 and 14x for 2026, with a target price adjustment of 12% down to 2.2 HKD, implying a 24% upside potential [2]
华润建材科技(01313.HK)：淡季水泥量利承压 “反内卷”或催化盈利修复