Ge Long Hui·2025-10-25 21:07Group 1: Natural Gas Demand and Supply - Northern China has experienced a rapid drop in temperatures since October 18, leading to early heating in regions like Taiyuan and Inner Mongolia, with expectations for a quick rebound in natural gas demand [1] - The World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predict that from November 2025 to March 2026, China's climate will be influenced by both El Niño and La Niña phenomena, resulting in extreme weather events with alternating strong cooling and warming [1] - In 2025, natural gas consumption during the heating season is expected to rebound significantly compared to the previous year, despite a 0.1% year-on-year decline in apparent natural gas consumption in the first eight months of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company anticipates a low single-digit growth in annual gas sales volume for 2025, with a slight recovery in gas sales margin, which is projected to increase by 0.01 CNY per cubic meter year-on-year [1] - The company reported a retail natural gas volume of 20.76 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.69%, while the gas sales margin rose to 0.55 CNY per cubic meter [1] - The company is focusing on hydrogen energy and green fuel business development, including ammonia fuel technology research, to create new growth points in the green energy sector [2] Group 3: Dividend and Share Buyback - The company plans to maintain its total dividend payout for 2025, with a 20% year-on-year increase in interim dividends for 2024, and aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [2] - The company has a share buyback plan in place, with the next two months identified as a critical window for executing these buybacks to boost market confidence [2] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company has been assigned a "Buy" rating with a target price of 26.6 HKD per share, reflecting a potential upside of 24% compared to the current price, based on updated earnings forecasts [2] - The target price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 16 times for 2025 and 14.6 times for 2026 [2]