期价再度冲破80000元/吨关口，碳酸锂反弹高度在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate prices have been rising, with futures breaking the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, driven by strong demand and accelerated inventory depletion [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement - As of October 24, lithium carbonate futures closed at 75,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.81%, while spot prices rose for six consecutive days, reaching 75,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.8% [1] - The recent price surge is attributed to robust demand from both the energy storage and automotive sectors, with a significant year-on-year increase in the production of cathode materials [1][3] Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been in a de-stocking phase, with weekly inventory reported at 130,400 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from the previous week [2] - The current inventory depletion rate is exceeding seasonal norms, indicating strong demand and optimistic market expectations for future demand [2][3] Group 3: Demand Insights - The demand for new energy electric vehicles and energy storage has surpassed expectations, with domestic sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 35% year-on-year in the first nine months [3] - The energy storage market has also seen a significant uptick, with overseas orders for energy storage systems increasing by nearly 132% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the current high inventory levels, the monthly demand from downstream industries is approaching 120,000 tons, suggesting that the market can sustain higher prices [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations around the 80,000 yuan/ton mark are seen as a normal adjustment, with potential for further increases if inventory continues to deplete and demand remains strong [5]