期价再度冲破80000元/吨关口 碳酸锂反弹高度在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate prices have been rising, with futures breaking the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, driven by strong demand and accelerated inventory depletion [1][2][3]. Demand Analysis - The demand for lithium carbonate from downstream sectors, particularly in energy storage and automotive, has been robust, with a 51% year-on-year increase in domestic cathode material production reaching 3.28 million tons in the first nine months of the year [1][3]. - The domestic sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded expectations, with a 35% year-on-year growth in the first nine months, confirming an annual growth rate of over 30% [3]. Inventory Trends - Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been in a de-stocking phase, with weekly inventory dropping to 130,400 tons as of October 24, a decrease of 2,292 tons [2]. - The current inventory depletion rate is significantly higher than seasonal norms, indicating strong demand and optimistic market expectations for next year [2][3]. Price Dynamics - The recent price fluctuations, including a rise to over 80,000 yuan/ton followed by a slight retreat, are attributed to market dynamics and the need for price stabilization after rapid increases [4][5]. - The current price levels are supported by solid fundamentals, with downstream companies having secured orders through November and some extending into early next year [4]. Market Outlook - The ongoing strong demand and inventory depletion suggest that the lithium carbonate market may continue to experience upward price pressure, especially if the current trends persist [4][5].