历史首次！白宫突发警告：政府停摆或无法发布10月份通胀数据

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data for the first time in history, creating significant uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The White House warns that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be unable to collect essential price data, leading to a potential absence of the October inflation report [2][3] - The BLS has paused all active data collection activities during the shutdown, which will delay the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report originally scheduled for November 13 [2][3] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Analysts indicate that the lack of key economic data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates in December, increasing uncertainty about future inflation trends [3][4] - The absence of inflation data may force the Federal Reserve to make rate decisions without critical information, leading to a "blind flying" scenario [3][4] Group 3: Recent Inflation Data - The September inflation data released prior to the shutdown showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, which is the highest level since June 2024 [5][6] - The core CPI for September also rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, both below market expectations [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the release of the September CPI data, traders increased bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut next week and a total of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [6][7] - The positive sentiment from the inflation data contributed to a surge in U.S. stock markets, with major indices reaching all-time highs [7]