2026年有色金属供需：铜短缺、镍和铅过剩

Core Viewpoint - The international forecast indicates that copper will experience a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years, driven by an accident at the world's second-largest copper mine and increased consumption for renewable energy facilities and data centers [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Supply and Demand - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply shortage of 150,000 tons for copper in 2026, following a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Copper production is expected to grow by only 0.9% in 2026, a slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth anticipated for 2025, primarily due to a landslide at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [4]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper futures reached a historical high of $11,000 per ton on October 9, 2023, nearing the record of $11,104.5 set in May 2024 [1]. Group 2: Other Metals Supply and Demand - Nickel is projected to face a surplus of 261,000 tons in 2026, worsening from a surplus of 209,000 tons in 2025, as demand from electric vehicles grows slower than expected [4]. - Lead is expected to remain in surplus in 2026, following a similar trend in 2025, with domestic consumption in China projected to decrease [5]. - The demand for copper is anticipated to increase significantly, particularly for data centers, with predictions that copper usage for this purpose could rise to six times the current level by 2050, reaching approximately 3 million tons annually [5].