金价快速上涨后迎来回调，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has attracted significant market attention, but a sharp decline of over 6% in a single day raises concerns about future price movements [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Short-term pressure on gold prices is evident due to technical overbought conditions and changes in the macro environment [1]. - Trading congestion indicates that both short-term and long-term gold positions are at 100% historical percentiles, historically leading to price corrections [1]. - Gold prices have increased by 30% in less than two months, reaching the upper limit of short-term gains over the past five years, with historical data suggesting an average pullback of 4% following such rapid increases [1]. - The World Gold Council's GRAM model indicates that over 50% of the gold price increase from August to September 2025 is attributed to unexplained residual factors, which historically correlate with reduced price increases in the following month [1]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is primarily driven by technical corrections and changes in macroeconomic narratives [2]. - Factors such as easing expectations around US-China trade tensions, potential ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, and alleviation of the US government shutdown crisis have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks weakening the dollar, and persistent government deficits [4]. - The over-reliance on deficit monetization since the 2008 financial crisis has led to a continuous depreciation of the dollar against physical assets, increasing long-term demand for gold as an alternative asset [4]. - Central bank gold purchases have accelerated post-Ukraine war, contributing to the decoupling of gold from the dollar and US Treasury yields [4]. - In a low-growth global environment, gold is positioned as a key asset to combat stagflation, with the potential for a prolonged bull market if technological advancements fail to address distribution issues [4]. - The historical trend of declining gold's market share relative to dollar-denominated assets since the 1980s continues to underpin the medium-term perspective on gold [4].