SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-10-26 02:15Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is approaching stabilization, with expectations for a rebound in the first half of next year based on current adjustment trends [1][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Proportion - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand homes increasingly replacing new homes [2][34]. - The average annual increase in the national second-hand housing transaction proportion is projected to be around 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with signs of stabilization expected by 2025 [2][34]. - In 2023, the second-hand housing transaction proportion in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a potential approach to the stable range of 60-63% [11][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield and Price Stability - The rental yield is a key factor in determining property value, with a reasonable rental yield expected to be around 2.5%-2.6%, close to the public housing loan interest rate [15][19]. - As of September 2025, the national rental yield across 100 cities was 2.37%, indicating a gap of 10-20 basis points from the reasonable level [23][34]. - The rental price index has shown a declining trend, with an average monthly drop of 0.26% over the past six months, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [28][34]. Group 3: Price-to-Income Ratio - The price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is significantly higher than in cities like New York and Tokyo, indicating a potential overvaluation [30][31]. - Adjusted calculations show that the price-to-income ratios for these cities are now more reasonable, with Beijing at 12.3 and Shanghai at 9.6, reflecting a significant decrease from previous years [31][34]. - The overall price-to-income ratio has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, suggesting a correction in the housing market [31][34]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing price still in a downward trend [34][36]. - The sequence of stabilization is anticipated to be new good houses first, followed by old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses [38][39]. - The rental yield of 2.5% serves as a benchmark for the overall real estate market stabilization, with variations expected across different city tiers [40][34].