四中全会后，“好房子”将冲击二手房？搞清买房底层逻辑

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Chinese real estate industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," with a focus on "good housing" as defined by the recent policy changes [1] - The market is experiencing a shift in logic from "having a house to live in" to "living in a good house," indicating a significant change in consumer preferences and market dynamics [1] - Concerns have been raised about whether the emphasis on "good housing" will significantly impact the second-hand housing market [1] Group 2 - In Beijing, the land supply structure indicates that new housing is primarily located outside the Fifth Ring, leading to a scarcity of new homes in core areas, which drives demand for second-hand homes [3] - The transaction data shows that in September 2025, new home sales in Beijing reached 460,000 square meters, a 21% month-on-month increase and a 22% year-on-year increase, while second-hand home transactions were 16,000 units, also reflecting a 19% increase [3][4] - The differentiation in sales speed between core and suburban areas reinforces the value of second-hand homes in prime locations, as new homes struggle to compete with the established advantages of older properties [4] Group 3 - In smaller cities, the increase in new housing supply tends to negatively impact the second-hand housing market due to the similarities in functionality and the more attractive features of new homes [5][6] - The overlap between new and second-hand homes is higher in lower-tier cities, with a reported 16.5% overlap in third and fourth-tier cities compared to 8.6% in first-tier cities, indicating a more competitive environment for second-hand homes [7][8] - The fundamental logic for homebuyers remains focused on "cost-performance," with larger cities prioritizing location and amenities, while smaller cities emphasize the product itself [9] Group 4 - Two critical variables affecting the relationship between new and second-hand homes are the age and quality of second-hand properties and the influence of policies and population movement [10] - In cities with aging second-hand homes, new properties can significantly disrupt the market, while in areas with newer second-hand homes, competition remains balanced [10] - The core market contradiction is shifting from "new versus old" to "supply versus demand," highlighting the complexity of the housing market dynamics [11][12]