美国9月通胀继续下行，年内继续降息预期确认

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the September CPI data, which is now expected on October 24. The CPI for September shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below expectations, and the core inflation has risen by only 0.2% month-on-month, marking the slowest growth in three months [2] - The weak CPI data, combined with the government shutdown, may further stimulate the Federal Reserve's willingness to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The market has already priced in two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the remainder of the year [2][3] - Service sector inflation has begun to cool, which is significant as it indicates a slowdown in economic growth and demand, contributing to the decline in CPI [2][3] Group 2 - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September, the lowest level since June. The significant decline in core service costs is a key driver of the softening core inflation [3] - The impact of tariffs and immigration policies on prices has been minimal, with the CPI for goods rising only 0.2% month-on-month in September. Some companies have absorbed tariff costs, while others have fully passed on price increases [3][4] - Concerns about U.S. inflation are primarily held by the Federal Reserve, which has been cautious due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and immigration policies. However, recent data suggests these concerns may be overstated [4][5] Group 3 - Global inflation is on a downward trend, with the average global CPI year-on-year inflation rate at 3.3%, down from 4.5% a year ago. This decline has been consistent, with 80% of the time in the past 35 months showing decreasing rates [4] - The main drivers of this global deflation are emerging markets and developing economies, where core inflation has reached multi-decade lows. This global context may further lower prices for U.S. imports and service sector costs [4] - The theoretical impact of tariffs may not reflect in final consumer prices, as companies might absorb costs to maintain profit margins, which could increase the downward risk for labor markets and CPI inflation [5]