欧盟豪赌俄资产，千亿欧元强援乌克兰，恐引爆金融稳定与持久战火

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is considering using frozen Russian sovereign funds, estimated at around €160 billion, to finance aid for Ukraine amidst escalating financial pressures and a significant reconstruction cost of €480 billion for Ukraine [1][4][18]. Group 1: Financial Context - The EU has provided approximately €180 billion in aid to Ukraine, which is insufficient given the estimated reconstruction costs of €480 billion [3][4]. - The EU's 2024 special aid plan for Ukraine is set at €50 billion, with €33 billion needing to be repaid as loans [3][4]. Group 2: Political and Strategic Implications - The plan to "borrow" from frozen Russian assets hinges on the uncertain outcome of the war and the potential for Russia to pay reparations, raising significant risks [4][18]. - Internal divisions within the EU regarding the use of these funds have emerged, with countries like France advocating for dual-use in military and fiscal support, while Germany insists on strict military-only usage [6][7]. Group 3: External Reactions and Risks - The plan has drawn criticism from various international actors, including China, which emphasizes the need to respect national sovereignty and property rights [7]. - Concerns have been raised by the European Central Bank regarding the potential destabilization of the euro and the global financial system if Russian assets are misused [9][11]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties - The EU faces a dilemma: proceeding with the plan could damage its financial credibility and provoke Russian retaliation, while delaying it risks undermining its commitments to Ukraine [14][16]. - Ukraine's urgent financial needs, including a projected $18 billion deficit in its 2026 budget, contrast sharply with the EU's internal disagreements, complicating the path forward [16][18].