美信用危机引爆谈判场：AA-评级戳破美国神话，中美攻守悄然易位

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Scope Ratings to AA- reflects growing concerns over the country's debt levels and governance issues, coinciding with ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur [1][3][4]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from its previous level to AA-, which is three levels below the highest rating [1][3]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, approaching the $40 trillion mark, leading to increased interest payment burdens due to the federal funds rate of 4%-4.25% [3]. - The downgrade is seen as a necessary response to the unsustainable debt levels and interest obligations faced by the U.S. government [3]. Group 2: Governance Crisis - The ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted over three weeks, has exacerbated the situation, with significant political divisions between the Republican and Democratic parties [4][5]. - A government that frequently shuts down struggles to maintain market trust, raising concerns among investors about potential defaults [4]. Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The downgrade of U.S. credit strength presents a strategic opportunity for China in the ongoing trade negotiations, as the U.S. may be more eager to reach an agreement to stabilize its situation [7]. - The shift in power dynamics, with the U.S. losing its traditional economic dominance, allows China to negotiate from a position of strength, potentially securing more favorable terms [7][9]. - Historical patterns indicate that credit rating adjustments can lead to market reactions, affecting U.S. debt yields and global confidence in dollar assets, which may influence the broader context of U.S.-China negotiations [9]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Dynamics - The balance of power at the negotiation table has shifted, with the U.S. no longer holding the same level of authority it once did, while China benefits from its stable economic governance and credit accumulation [11]. - The credit rating event may lead to significant changes in the negotiation process, requiring both parties to adapt their strategies to leverage the new dynamics effectively [11].