金晟富：10.26黄金区间震荡格局不变！下周黄金分析参考

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant adjustment after nine weeks of strong gains, with prices expected to end the week lower, marking the end of a three-month upward trend [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a historical high above $4,355 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, with a notable drop recorded on Tuesday, resulting in one of the largest single-day declines in years [1]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4,112.65 per ounce, down over 3% from the previous Friday's closing price [1]. - Despite high inflation pressures, the overall market trend remains relatively mild, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index dropping to a five-month low [1]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts anticipated in December [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the optimistic sentiment is already reflected in current prices, indicating that this year's peak may have already been reached [1]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a "digestive phase" following significant volatility, with technical indicators showing signs of fatigue, yet fundamental support remains strong [2]. - The upcoming week is expected to be critical, with multiple central bank meetings and geopolitical events that could influence market dynamics [2]. Trading Strategies - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on high selling near $4,150-$4,160 and buying on dips around $4,005-$4,010, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [6]. - The market is anticipated to remain within a range of $4,000-$4,200, with potential for further fluctuations based on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions [3][5].