落后就要挨打！韩国拒付美国 3500 亿现金，“硬刚”能换来体面吗？

Group 1: Core Issues - The U.S. has demanded South Korea invest $350 billion to lower tariffs, with strict conditions on investment direction and profit sharing [3][5][6] - South Korea's foreign exchange reserves are approximately $400 billion, making the U.S. demand nearly impossible to meet without significant economic repercussions [6][17] - The automotive and semiconductor sectors are particularly vulnerable, with one-fifth of South Korea's exports going to the U.S., risking layoffs and industry disruption if tariffs are imposed [6][10] Group 2: South Korea's Response - President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration previously complied with U.S. demands, but current President Lee Jae-myung is taking a firmer stance against the U.S. [5][10] - Negotiations have led to some concessions from the U.S., allowing for reduced cash payments and a more favorable profit-sharing arrangement for South Korea [8][10] - Lee has publicly committed to not compromising South Korea's interests, reflecting a shift in approach compared to his predecessor [10][19] Group 3: Economic and Strategic Considerations - South Korea's strength in the global semiconductor and battery markets gives it leverage, as U.S. tech companies rely heavily on South Korean suppliers [14][16] - The country is actively seeking to diversify its markets and reduce dependence on the U.S., including expanding production in Indonesia and Vietnam [16] - Despite these efforts, South Korea's economic reliance on the U.S. remains significant, with many SMEs dependent on U.S. orders, posing risks if tariffs are enacted [17][19] Group 4: Security Concerns - South Korea's security dependence on the U.S. is a critical issue, with substantial military presence and financial obligations to the U.S. [18][21] - The potential for increased military costs if trade negotiations fail adds another layer of pressure on South Korea's decision-making [18][21] - The need for South Korea to enhance its own military and economic capabilities is emphasized to avoid being seen as a subordinate in international negotiations [21]