今明两年买房，是吃亏还是捡漏？房产趋势给出答案

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market, which has seen significant price increases since the housing reform in 1998, is now experiencing a downturn, with average prices declining from a peak of 11,000 RMB per square meter to 9,560 RMB, a drop of over 15% [2] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the implementation of housing reform in 1998, the average national housing price has surged from 2,000 RMB to 11,000 RMB per square meter, marking an increase of 5.5 times [1] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, housing prices have skyrocketed from 3,000 RMB to 65,000 RMB per square meter, with a cumulative increase exceeding 20 times [1] - As of June this year, 34 out of 70 major cities have housing prices lower than two years ago, with 27 cities seeing prices revert to three years ago levels [2] Group 2: Sales Performance - In the first eight months of 2022, new housing sales in 100 cities fell by 44% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities experiencing a 37% decline [4] - Sales in third and fourth-tier cities also dropped by 25%, totaling 1,083 million square meters [4] Group 3: Government Policies - To stimulate the sluggish market, local governments have implemented various measures, including lowering down payment ratios, reducing loan interest rates, and increasing housing fund loan limits [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment - There are two contrasting perspectives in the market: the optimistic "bullish" camp believes that policy easing will lead to a rebound in housing prices, while the pessimistic "bearish" camp anticipates a prolonged adjustment period [6] - The Chinese government's real estate regulation measures have been extensive, with 651 instances of policy adjustments by 2021, indicating a gradual but significant impact on the market [6] - Factors such as slowing urbanization, saturated housing supply, and declining marriage rates are expected to reinforce the ongoing market adjustment [6] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer willingness to purchase homes is declining, influenced by economic pressures and job losses, leading many to postpone buying plans [8] - A survey by the People's Bank of China indicates that residents prefer saving over investing or consuming, which may lead to a prolonged adjustment cycle in housing prices [8] - The acceleration of affordable housing construction is expected to divert demand away from the commercial housing market, potentially stabilizing prices [8]