温氏股份(300498)25年三季报点评：生猪价格低迷拖累利润表现 肉鸡板块经营小幅改善

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 to Q3 of 2025, with revenue at 75.788 billion yuan and net profit at 5.256 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.03% and -18.29% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.937 billion yuan and net profit of 1.781 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decline of -9.76% and -65.02% [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in the average selling price of pigs during the peak season, despite an increase in the number of pigs sold [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q1 to Q3 2025, the company sold 27.668 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 28.32%, while Q3 sales reached 9.736 million pigs, up 35.45% year-on-year [1] - The weighted average selling price for pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg for Q1 to Q3 and 13.86 yuan/kg for Q3, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of -12.79% and -28.84% respectively [1] - The average selling price of pigs decreased monthly from July to September, contributing to the overall decline in performance [1] Cost and Efficiency - The company has been improving operational efficiency, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming remaining stable at 12.2 to 12.4 yuan/kg in August [1] - Despite low pig prices, the company managed to achieve profitability in its pig farming business during Q3 2025 [2] - The average cost of chicken production was maintained at a low level, with the total cost for broilers at 11.6 yuan per jin in August [2] Chicken Business Performance - The company sold 950 million chickens from Q1 to Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.90%, while Q3 sales were 350 million chickens, up 8.44% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average selling price for chickens was 11.22 yuan/kg for Q1 to Q3 and 11.91 yuan/kg for Q3, with year-on-year decreases of -15.22% and -9.37% respectively [2] - The chicken business showed signs of recovery in Q3, with monthly average prices increasing from July to September [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 to Q3 2025 was 12.82%, down by 3.51 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in pig prices [2] - The expense ratio for the same period was 6.15%, showing an improvement of -1.28 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective cost control measures [2] Investment Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 7.787 billion yuan, 11.622 billion yuan, and 13.884 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -15.6%, +49.2%, and +19.5% respectively [3] - The company maintains a solid leading position in the breeding industry with good long-term growth potential, sustaining a "buy" rating [3]