印度采购俄油将归零，莫迪不服气又没办法，换个渠道给俄送钱

Core Points - India, as the largest buyer of Russian oil, faces immense pressure to reduce or halt its purchases following U.S. sanctions against Russian oil giants [1][2] - The sanctions are expected to significantly impact the trade volume between India and Russia, potentially bringing it close to zero [1] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's imports of Russian oil surged to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for one-third of its total imports, saving approximately $17 billion in 2023 [1][2] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - The U.S. sanctions target major Russian oil companies, which account for half of Russia's maritime oil exports, directly affecting Russia's economic foundation [1] - Reliance on Russian oil has provided India with substantial economic benefits, but the sanctions force Indian refiners to reassess their strategies [1][2] - The potential cessation of Russian oil imports could lead to a significant drop in trade volume, with estimates suggesting a decline from $66 billion to below $20 billion [4] Group 2: India's Strategic Decisions - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, is considering reducing or stopping Russian oil imports due to U.S. pressure [2] - India is simultaneously increasing its defense purchases from Russia, including an additional $1.1 billion order for S-400 missile systems, despite U.S. warnings of potential sanctions [2][3] - This dual approach reflects India's attempt to balance energy security with maintaining strategic relations with Russia while signaling to the U.S. its autonomy in defense matters [3][5] Group 3: Domestic Political Considerations - The Indian government is navigating complex domestic political pressures, as Prime Minister Modi's administration seeks to maintain a strong leadership image while managing energy needs [5] - The potential loss of discounted Russian oil could lead to significant economic costs for India, including increased energy expenditures and the need for refinery adjustments [5] - Delays in the delivery of S-400 systems and potential sanctions could complicate India's defense procurement and operational capabilities [5]