天风证券：12月降息也在路上？

Core Insights - The U.S. CPI for September came in lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% against an expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [2] Inflation Components - Food inflation has cooled, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.5%) and a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (previously 3.2%) [3] - Energy prices surged, with a month-on-month increase of 3.8% (previously 1.7%), while energy services saw a decline of -0.7% [3] Core Goods - Core goods inflation has slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [4] - The slowdown is attributed to significant decreases in used car and auto parts inflation, which fell to 0% month-on-month from 0.5% [4] Core Services - Core services inflation also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previously 0.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [5] - The largest component, housing, saw a decrease in month-on-month growth from 0.4% to 0.2% [5] Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected CPI data has increased expectations for two more interest rate cuts this year, with a 96% probability for a December cut [7] - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar declined [7]