Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-26 10:28Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from prioritizing inflation control to focusing on growth, with a consensus expectation of interest rate cuts in October and December, indicating a potential continuous rate-cutting cycle [1] - This policy adjustment is driven by reduced inflation pressures and signs of weakness in the job market, rather than economic panic [1] Group 2: Impact on Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industries - The interest rate cuts will lower financing costs and improve global liquidity, significantly benefiting the pharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drug and CXO companies reliant on financing for R&D [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see increased capital flow towards emerging market assets, supported by recent policy events and conferences [3] - In contrast, the chemical industry may experience a replenishment cycle, stimulating capital expenditures and production investments, but faces challenges from rising raw material costs and weak global demand [3] Group 3: Company Performance Highlights - Sanofi expects high single-digit sales growth and low double-digit earnings per share growth driven by innovation, despite challenges in its vaccine business [4] - Roche reported a 7% year-on-year sales increase to 45.9 billion Swiss francs, primarily driven by its pharmaceutical division, which saw a 9% increase due to high demand for key innovative drugs [5] - Dow Inc. experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in net sales, with all operational segments showing a downturn, although cash flow improved significantly due to working capital optimization [5] Group 4: Trends in the Pharmaceutical and Chemical Sectors - Chinese companies are gaining global competitiveness in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in the CXO field, which is becoming a crucial base for global pharmaceutical innovation [5] - Traditional sectors like raw material and chemical pharmaceuticals must upgrade technology and collaborate across the supply chain to avoid market share and profit erosion [5] - The future competitiveness of the global market and China's pharmaceutical and chemical industries will increasingly depend on technological innovation and global operational capabilities [6]