“超级周”来袭！事关降息

Central Bank Focus - The global financial market is anticipating a "Super Central Bank Week" with key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1][2] - Market expectations indicate a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 93.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2] Economic Indicators - Investors will focus on the U.S. core PCE price index for September, which remains stubbornly high at a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. GDP data for Q3 will be released on October 30, with estimates suggesting a potential 0.45 percentage point decline in growth due to the ongoing government shutdown [3] Earnings Season Highlights - The upcoming week is crucial for earnings reports, with over 170 companies expected to release their results, including five of the "Tech Giants" [4][5] - Apple is projected to report earnings of $1.76 per share and revenue of $101.71 billion, driven by strong iPhone 17 pre-sales and recovery in the Chinese market [5] - Alphabet's expected revenue is $86 billion, with earnings per share forecasted at $2.17, while Amazon's revenue is anticipated to be $179.2 billion, slightly above market expectations [5] Market Sentiment - The performance of these major tech companies is seen as a significant influence on market sentiment, with expectations for profit growth of 16.6% for the "Tech Giants" compared to 8.1% for the broader S&P 500 [5][6] - The AI sector, in which these tech giants are key players, has been a major driver of stock market growth in recent years [6]