2024年债券市场分析研究报告-CCDC

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market demonstrated steady growth in 2024, expanding in scale and continuing product innovation while enhancing institutional frameworks and increasing openness to foreign participation, thereby supporting the real economy [1][2]. Economic Overview - The international economy showed a divergent recovery, with the US economy exceeding expectations while Europe faced recession. Global inflation gradually receded but remained uneven across major economies, leading to differentiated monetary policies [1][2]. - China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with stable recovery in consumption and investment, providing a solid foundation for the bond market's development [1][2]. Bond Market Performance - The overall bond market operated smoothly, with issuance reaching 48.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.83%, and total outstanding bonds growing to 156.56 trillion yuan. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.68% by year-end [1][2]. - Trading volumes increased, with cash settlement volumes at 416.38 trillion yuan and repurchase settlement volumes at 2,190.66 trillion yuan [1]. Product Innovation - The bond market saw significant product innovations, including the launch of green bonds and new debt financing tools, as well as the successful introduction of TLAC non-capital bonds [2]. Market Structure and Regulation - Continuous improvement in market regulations included enhancements in special bond management, risk prevention, and information disclosure mechanisms, alongside strengthened unified management of credit rating agencies [2]. Foreign Participation and Open Market - The bond market's openness progressed steadily, with optimized channels for foreign institutional participation and record issuance of panda bonds. Mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" were further refined [2]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with continued growth in issuance anticipated. However, external risks such as global debt issues and trade protectionism remain concerns [2].