盛松成：经济高质量发展需平衡好消费和投资

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth of over 4.5% to achieve a per capita GDP exceeding $20,000 by 2035, indicating a focus on both qualitative and quantitative growth [3] - The emphasis on "building a modern industrial system" and "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance" highlights the deepening of China's innovation-driven development strategy [4] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is crucial, with a focus on enhancing the productive service industry, which currently accounts for just over 30% of GDP, compared to 47.5% in the U.S. [4] Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - The central government has shifted its macroeconomic policy focus towards boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, marking a significant policy transition [5] - The relationship between consumption and investment is emphasized as a necessary balance, with the aim of creating a virtuous cycle that stimulates economic growth [5][6] - The government is promoting effective investment and consumption through measures such as tax reforms to incentivize local governments to boost consumption [6] Group 3: International Trade and Currency Policy - The plan includes expanding high-level openness and enhancing cooperation, with China's foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI) entering a dual investment phase [7] - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with the share of exports to the top three trading partners decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have increased to 47% [7] - The use of the renminbi for international settlements has reached 30% in trade, with some regions like Guangdong exceeding 50%, indicating a trend towards currency internationalization [7][8]