永别了，美国！中国将成为全球“经济霸主”？

Core Points - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has escalated over the past seven years, with significant tariffs imposed on imports from China, including a proposed 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese goods by Trump [1][3] - The U.S. trade deficit with China reached $295.5 billion in 2024, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year, indicating that the tariffs have not effectively reduced the trade imbalance [3] - China's GDP growth for Q1 2024 was reported at 5.4%, with exports to ASEAN countries increasing by 15% in the first half of 2025, showcasing resilience in its economy despite external pressures [5] - The global trade landscape is shifting towards multipolarity, with the EU increasing trade with China by 8% in the first half of 2025, particularly in electric vehicles and green energy [7] - The U.S. economy, while showing a GDP growth of around 2.5% in 2024, faces underlying issues such as persistent inflation, with the CPI rising to 3.2% due to supply chain bottlenecks [9] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil moving towards using local currencies for trade, impacting the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global transactions [11][13] - The trade war has revealed the limitations of the U.S. "America First" policy, as countries increasingly seek partnerships with China, which has become the primary trading partner for over 140 nations [15][16] Summary by Sections Trade Policies and Tariffs - Trump proposed significant tariffs on imports, including a 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to immediate retaliatory measures from China [1][3] - The U.S. implemented a "90-day exemption" policy to attract EU and ASEAN manufacturing back to the U.S. [3] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth outperformed expectations at 5.4% in Q1 2024, with strong export performance to ASEAN and EU [5] - The U.S. trade deficit with China increased to $295.5 billion in 2024, indicating ineffective tariff strategies [3] Global Trade Dynamics - The EU's trade with China increased by 8% in early 2025, reflecting a pragmatic approach towards China amidst U.S. pressures [7] - Countries are increasingly adopting local currencies for trade, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, as seen with Saudi Arabia and Brazil [11][13] Long-term Implications - The trade war has highlighted the U.S.'s diminishing influence as countries pivot towards China for trade partnerships [15][16] - The structural adjustments in China's economy, with a focus on consumption and services, contribute to its resilience against tariffs [13]