巴西大豆对中国“坐地起价”，中国可不会惯着他们

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in China's soybean procurement strategy, highlighting the transition from U.S. to Brazilian suppliers and the implications of price increases by Brazilian traders, which reflect broader changes in global supply chain dynamics [1][3][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Starting from May 2025, China's soybean purchases from the U.S. decreased to zero by September, with Brazil becoming the primary supplier [1]. - Brazilian traders raised soybean prices aggressively, with quotes increasing from $580 to $650 per ton, a 12% rise in just a few weeks [3]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China imported 52.1 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for 66% of total imports, with some months seeing up to 93% [3][5]. Group 2: China's Response - China reacted to Brazil's price hikes by organizing a collective halt on soybean orders for December 2025 and January 2026, amounting to 8 million tons, indicating a strategic counteraction [7]. - China's response is based on a well-thought-out strategy, showcasing its ability to not rely solely on Brazilian supplies [9][22]. - The country has built a diversified supply network, including Argentina and Uruguay, to mitigate risks associated with dependence on a single supplier [11][18]. Group 3: Strategic Assets - China's state reserves provide a buffer in negotiations, allowing for market stabilization and time to seek alternative sources [9][18]. - The cancellation of export tariffs by Argentina led to a rapid increase in orders from China, filling the gap left by Brazil [11]. - Technological advancements have reduced China's reliance on soybeans, with alternative feed components increasing in usage [13][20]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The article suggests that Brazil's short-sighted price increases may lead to a loss of market trust in the long run, while Argentina's strategic moves could enhance its market position [22]. - China's actions demonstrate a mature national strategy that balances diversification, reserve management, and technological innovation [22]. - The ongoing shifts in the soybean market reflect a broader reconfiguration of commodity pricing dynamics, with China increasingly shaping its role as a proactive market player [20].