管涛：年内宏观政策或需适时加力

Core Insights - China's economy has shown overall stability in 2023, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% and the successful completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][10] - There are notable strengths in both production and demand, but since the third quarter, there has been a clear weakening in both consumption and investment, highlighting insufficient internal growth momentum [1][6] Economic Performance - Industrial production has improved, with the value-added of industrial enterprises above a designated size increasing by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.6% [2][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and furniture, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [4][7] External Trade and Policy Response - Despite external pressures, China's exports have shown resilience, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, even as exports to the U.S. fell by 16.9% [3][10] - The government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to support external trade and stabilize economic growth, including a broad deficit rate of 8.7% and a macro leverage ratio increase of 9.1 percentage points [3][10] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption recovery is fragile, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% in September, the lowest since December of the previous year, reflecting the diminishing effects of previous policies and weak consumer confidence [7][8] - Fixed asset investment has been declining, with a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in September, marking the first negative growth since September 2020, particularly in real estate development, which fell by 13.9% [8][9] Future Outlook and Policy Adjustments - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for consumption, and the government is expected to enhance policies to stimulate consumption and investment, including the issuance of special bonds and financial tools [11][12] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating a focus on maintaining economic momentum [12][13]