Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2025-10-26 13:38Core Viewpoint - A unique "sell" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) has been issued by analyst Jay Goldberg from Seaport Global Securities, contrasting with the general bullish sentiment on Wall Street [2][4]. Group 1: Analyst's Perspective - Goldberg expresses skepticism about the AI hype, comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, warning that a slowdown in capital expenditures could lead to a rapid market reversal [3][5]. - He highlights that Nvidia's impressive growth is largely driven by substantial capital spending from a few tech giants, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI, which collectively contribute to Nvidia's market valuation of $4.5 trillion [5][6]. - Goldberg's target price for Nvidia is set at $100, significantly lower than the average target price of $220 from other analysts, indicating a potential downside of 55% [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expected capital expenditures from the five listed companies are projected to approach $400 billion by 2025, with OpenAI committing over $1 trillion [6]. - Goldberg warns that the actual returns from these massive investments have been limited, drawing parallels to the telecom infrastructure boom during the dot-com era, where companies like Cisco saw their stock prices soar based on anticipated internet traffic, only to suffer significant declines when expectations were not met [7][10]. - He questions the sustainability of Nvidia's stock price, suggesting that the market's belief in the AI chip's scarcity may limit further price increases, as there are few upward drivers left [11]. Group 3: Broader Market Sentiment - Despite Goldberg's bearish outlook, the majority of Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, with 73 out of 80 analysts rating Nvidia as a "buy" and only 6 holding a "hold" view [17]. - Some analysts, like Jim Awad from Clearstead Advisors, argue that the AI sector is still in its early stages and Nvidia plays a crucial role in driving economic and market momentum [18]. - The most optimistic analyst, Frank Lee from HSBC, recently raised Nvidia's rating to "buy" with a target price of $320, citing strong demand for AI accelerators [19].