鑫元周观点 | 二十届四中全会胜利召开，擘画未来五年经济社会发展蓝图

Macro Dynamics - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully convened, approving the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining the blueprint for China's economic and social development for the next five years [3][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" identifies 12 key directions for national economic and social development, including modern industrial systems, new productive forces, expanding domestic demand, economic system reform, high-level opening up, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, cultural prosperity and innovation, improving people's livelihoods and common prosperity, green transformation, national security system construction, and modernization of national defense and military [3][7] Equity Market - The A-share market saw a collective rise in broad-based indices, with the ChiNext Index up 8.05%, the Sci-Tech 50 up 7.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 4.73% as of October 24 [11] - The sectors leading the gains included telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment, while agriculture, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors lagged behind [11] - The current valuation levels of various broad-based indices have mostly exceeded 50%, with electronics, telecommunications, and computing sectors seeing the most significant increases in valuation [14] Fixed Income Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with overall yields oscillating. The 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bond yields changed by 1 basis point, 3 basis points, and 3 basis points, respectively, closing at 2.21%, 1.85%, and 1.47% [5] - The market's focus has shifted from "panic-driven" to "opportunity-driven," with investors looking for short-term opportunities rather than long-term safe-haven allocations [5][6] Investment Strategy - The upcoming week suggests maintaining a neutral position in the market, as the previous gains may be realized in the short term. The emphasis on "technological self-reliance" and "modern industrial systems" in the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to drive high-quality development [4][46] - The bond market is anticipated to remain under pressure as residents' asset allocation shifts from bonds to equities, especially if the stock market does not peak [47][48]