Is Freeport-McMoRan's Recent Stock Slide a Buying Opportunity for Wise Investors?

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan has revised its full-year and 2026 sales expectations due to a significant incident at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, leading to a 22% drop in stock price over two days in late September before a partial recovery [1] Group 1: Incident Details - A fatal incident occurred on September 8 at the Grasberg Block Cave, resulting in a sudden rush of 800,000 tons of wet material entering the mine, affecting multiple levels [2] - The incident resulted in the death of seven workers and is critical as the GBC mine is a key part of Freeport's operations, with Indonesia being the lowest cost region for production and delivery [3] Group 2: Impact on Production and Revenue - The reduction in output from GBC will significantly impact the company's revenue, as Indonesia was expected to provide 39% of Freeport's total mining production in 2025 [4] - The GBC ore body represents 50% of PT Freeport Indonesia's estimated proven and probable reserves and approximately 70% of its previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029 [5] Group 3: Production Estimates and Future Outlook - The incident damaged infrastructure necessary for production in other blocks, with management planning to restart operations in two unaffected mines in Q4 2025, followed by a phased restart of three GBC production blocks [6] - There is a projected 4% reduction in third-quarter copper sales compared to previous estimates, with PTFI's production in 2026 potentially being approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates [8]