10月26日今日金价：无需观望！金价大概率重演历史走势

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices fluctuating dramatically around the key support level of $4040, reminiscent of the market conditions before the 2016 gold bull market [1][3][5]. Market Volatility - On October 25, the London gold spot price dropped from $4144.19 to $4044.07, a decline of over 2.3%, before rebounding to $4111.22, indicating a volatile trading session [3][5]. - The recent trend includes a notable drop of 5.31% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years, with prices nearing the psychological barrier of $4000 [3][5]. Historical Comparison - Current market conditions closely mirror those of 2016, where investor sentiment was cautious, awaiting confirmation of a breakout, which was later triggered by the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts, leading to a 14.6% increase in gold prices within a month [5][7]. - Key data comparisons show that the U.S. CPI in September 2025 was 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, similar to the 2016 scenario that ignited rate cut expectations [5][7]. Support Levels and Trading Activity - The $4040 support level has become a focal point for both bulls and bears, with gold prices testing this level multiple times in the past three months and rebounding each time [7][9]. - On October 25, trading volume surged by 27% compared to the previous day, indicating significant market activity around this support level [7]. Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with a net addition of 987 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a solid support for gold prices [7][9]. - The Chinese central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves for 36 months, reaching 2842 tons, which contributes to a hidden safety net for the market [7][9]. Retail Market Dynamics - Retail gold sales reflect changing market sentiments, with gold shops experiencing reduced foot traffic but employing strategies like price guarantee services to attract customers [9]. - Different consumer segments show varied preferences, with wedding-related buyers focusing on branded gold jewelry, while investors lean towards bank investment gold bars [9]. Short-term Trading Opportunities - The increased volatility in gold prices has created short-term trading opportunities, with technical indicators suggesting potential rebounds [11]. - The domestic gold futures market is also experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline [11]. Investor Strategies - Investor strategies are diverging, with experienced investors placing long positions around $4040-$4045, while cautious investors are opting for short positions if prices break below $4040 [13].