黄金破4300、比特币再飙！聪明资金或早已撤退，谁在最后接盘？

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around "currency devaluation" has gained significant traction in global financial markets, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin as a means to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - Many investors are currently engaging in "herd behavior," investing in gold, Bitcoin, and other assets that are nearing historical highs, which may lead to them becoming "high-position buyers" [4][7]. - The surge in money supply, particularly M2, has been a focal point in the currency devaluation narrative, but the market is more concerned with the "growth rate" of money supply rather than its absolute total [4][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A layered investment strategy is recommended, dividing investments into defensive, offensive, and high-volatility layers to balance risk and return [7][15]. - The defensive layer should consist of 15% to 20% in gold ETFs or physical gold to provide a stable foundation for assets [7][9]. - The offensive layer can include 5% to 15% in silver and commodity ETFs, which are more sensitive to inflation and economic cycles [7][9]. - High-volatility assets like Bitcoin should be limited to 5% for conservative investors and no more than 10% for aggressive investors due to their extreme price fluctuations [9][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Asset Allocation - The current deep inversion of the U.S. yield curve typically signals an impending economic recession, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [10][11]. - Investors are advised to adjust their asset allocation strategies based on changes in the yield curve and market conditions, emphasizing data-driven decisions over emotional reactions [11][12].