帮主郑重：A股下周迎关键变局！三大信号定调后市方向

Policy Perspective - The recent Fourth Plenary Session approved the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing technology innovation and new productive forces, marking a clear direction for the market towards sectors like AI computing, semiconductors, and low-altitude economy [3] - The shift in policy from "defensive" to "offensive" is evident, with new regulations supporting the semiconductor industry and significant funding for tech enterprises through the issuance of nearly 1 trillion yuan in science and technology bonds [3] Capital Market Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a recent high, but trading volume dropped to 1.67 trillion yuan, indicating a potential accumulation of positions by institutional investors [4] - Northbound capital invested 144.6 billion yuan in the electronics sector in Q3, with significant interest in semiconductor and AI hardware stocks [4] - The People's Bank of China is set to inject 900 billion yuan through MLF, which may alleviate liquidity concerns in the market [4] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical juncture, needing to break through the 3965-point resistance to target 4000 points, while failing to hold the 3944-point support could lead to a pullback to 3900 points [5] - The ChiNext Index saw an 8.05% increase, but there are concerns about a potential correction as over 60 billion yuan of main capital has exited [5][6] Sector Opportunities - Focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and semiconductors, as domestic breakthroughs in photolithography and rising prices in memory chips present tangible investment opportunities [7] - High-end manufacturing and resource sectors, such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, are benefiting from a global manufacturing recovery, with a 30% increase in overseas orders for leading engineering machinery firms [8] - Defensive sectors like coal and banking offer high dividends, making them attractive for conservative investors during market fluctuations [9] Investment Strategies - Short-term traders should maintain a 30% cash reserve and consider accumulating semiconductor and AI hardware stocks on dips [10] - Long-term investors are advised to hold 60-80% of their positions, focusing on reasonably valued semiconductor equipment leaders and improving consumer electronics companies [11]