特朗普又要刷新美国历史！关税政策遇挫，美国信用记录再添瑕疵！

Group 1 - The U.S. government is experiencing a significant shutdown, lasting 25 days, which has severely impacted the service sector and delayed critical economic data releases such as non-farm payrolls and CPI [1][3] - The market is estimating that the shutdown could extend until November 11, leading to two consecutive months without non-farm payroll data, increasing the risk of policy misjudgments by the Federal Reserve [3][10] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Scope Ratings from "AA" to "AA-", reflecting concerns over high federal deficits and increased interest expenditures, amidst a politically polarized environment [3][5] Group 2 - The ongoing shutdown and credit rating downgrades highlight systemic failures within the U.S. governance structure, with rising financing costs anticipated as a consequence [5][10] - The trade policies initiated by former President Trump, particularly tariffs, have led to unintended economic pressures, including increased consumer spending and inflationary effects, despite official inflation rates remaining stable [5][7] - A legal challenge regarding tariffs is set to be debated in the Supreme Court on November 5, which could have significant implications for U.S. economic policy and the balance of presidential power [7][8] Group 3 - The combination of the government shutdown, missing economic data, and credit rating downgrades reflects a broader issue of governance inefficiency and political dysfunction in the U.S. [10][12] - If non-farm payroll data is not released by mid-November, it could create an unprecedented "data vacuum," complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [12][14] - The current situation serves as a critical indicator of the U.S. economic credibility, with the potential for long-term impacts on market confidence and investment behavior [14]