10月26日今日金价：拐点显现，黄金市场或将迎更大波动

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, particularly on October 26, 2025, indicates a potential significant shift in market dynamics, with prices experiencing dramatic fluctuations that suggest a struggle between bullish and bearish forces [1][3][8]. Market Dynamics - On October 26, gold prices saw a dramatic drop of $67, reaching a low of $4044.07 per ounce, before rebounding to close at $4126.9, showcasing extreme volatility [1][3]. - The trading session produced a long lower shadow candlestick, a pattern often seen at market turning points, indicating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers [3][6]. - The day prior, on October 21, the market experienced a significant drop of $250.53 per ounce, marking a 5.75% decline, the largest single-day drop since October 2021 [5]. Technical Analysis - The $4040 level is identified as a critical support line for the gold market, which has implications for both short-term and long-term price movements [6][8]. - If gold prices fall below this support, the next significant level to watch is around $3770; conversely, a rebound could lead to challenges against previous highs of $4180 [8]. Institutional Behavior - Recent data from CFTC indicates a divergence in institutional investor positions, with large hedge funds reducing their long positions while commercial traders are decreasing their short positions, suggesting a potential market direction change [8][10]. - Since late April, non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold have decreased by nearly 40,000 contracts, a drop of about 20%, alongside a 40-ton outflow from the largest gold ETF, SPDR [10]. Central Bank Activity - Despite short-term market fluctuations, global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 244 tons in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing support for gold prices [10]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves, reflecting a broader trend among central banks to maintain gold as a key asset amid rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's dominance [10]. Market Sentiment - The relationship between gold prices and the US dollar has shifted, with gold showing resilience despite a strong dollar, suggesting that market participants are pricing in future inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties [12]. - The current market environment reflects a mix of historical patterns and new variables, such as high global debt levels and increased central bank gold purchases, which could influence future price movements [17].