CICC(SH:601995) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-26 23:55Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the U.S. September CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Rent and used car prices have significantly dragged down the CPI, reflecting weakened demand in these sectors [1] - CICC speculates that this may be related to Trump's immigration policies, which have restricted and expelled immigrants [1] - Prices of goods affected by tariffs have shown mixed trends, with the rate and extent of price increases being lower than CICC's previous expectations [1] - This indicates weak terminal demand, making it difficult for companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers [1] - Service inflation remains robust [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Overall, the inflation data appears moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential decision to continue lowering interest rates [1] - Given the downward risks in the labor market, CICC anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1]