民生证券：新一轮贸易谈判的微妙信号

Core Insights - The recent trade talks signal an increase in the threshold for "derailment," reducing the likelihood of future fluctuations, although comprehensive resolutions on specific trade issues may take time [1] - The U.S. side's signals are characterized by three keywords: "comprehensive," "framework," and "high-level meeting," indicating a broad range of issues and a structured approach to negotiations [1] - The framework agreement aims to clarify the "direction and sequence" of problem-solving, addressing previous ambiguities in bilateral relations [3] Group 1 - The talks indicate a constructive approach, with both sides reaching a basic consensus on their respective concerns [1] - The framework agreement resembles earlier agreements between the U.S. and Europe, lacking in detail compared to the first-phase agreement [2] - The discussions may lead to a comprehensive trade agreement similar to the 2019 first-phase agreement, which could be a prerequisite for Trump's planned visit to China early next year [4] Group 2 - The negotiations may include specific exchanges, such as China's soybean imports contingent on U.S. fentanyl tariff reductions, and the potential for further discussions on rare earth controls and software export regulations [3] - The outcome of the recent talks marks the end of a phase of friction and serves as a starting point for future negotiations [5] - The expectation is for continued monthly trade discussions following the high-level meeting at the end of the month [3]