近两年不买房，过几天是买不起还是任性挑？答案已经很清楚！

Core Insights - The current housing market in China presents a significant challenge for families, with high property prices making homeownership increasingly difficult [1][2] - The average housing price in China reached 9,860 yuan in 2020, while the average income for many families did not exceed 10,000 yuan per month, creating a substantial gap [1] - The average housing price-to-income ratio in 2020 was 9.2, indicating that a typical family would need 9.2 years of income to afford an average-priced home without any expenses [1] - The real estate market is showing signs of polarization, with 27 cities experiencing price increases, while 36 cities saw declines in new home prices as of September [2] Urban Dynamics - Population movement is a critical factor influencing the long-term trajectory of the real estate market, with smaller cities facing potential population outflows while larger cities continue to attract residents [6][9] - The urbanization rate in China has reached 63.89%, indicating a shift in development patterns from rural to urban areas, with smaller cities losing population to larger ones [6] Housing Supply and Demand - The housing market is experiencing an oversupply, with a homeownership rate of 96% among urban residents and 41.5% of families owning two or more properties [9] - A significant portion of urban housing is underutilized, with a vacancy rate of 21.4% reported in 2017, suggesting that many properties are not effectively entering the market [9][10] Future Outlook - In the coming years, purchasing homes in smaller cities may become easier, while acquiring quality properties in larger cities will likely remain challenging [10] - As income levels rise, there will be a shift towards improving living standards, making high-quality housing more desirable, while ordinary housing will primarily serve basic living needs [11]